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 The traditional innovation diffusion curve through a sector is shown by the curve d-n. Here attaining a takeup of around 80% might take 20 years. With a proactive extension service the diffusion curve can take the form d-e where it takes less time to attain the same level of takeup; this results in an increase in the real growth rate in the economy. |
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Extension counts...
Extension services have a vital role in increasing the rate of takeup of productive technologies and techniques. The shorter period over which a more productive technology or technique diffuses through a sector the higher the rate of economic growth in real terms.
The phasing of individual corporate investment cycles, the degree of impact of a new technology or technique on overall performance and the levels of appropriate awareness and confidence in innovation combine to provide a growth estimate for information technologies of around 0.5%-1% per annum to the UK economic growth rates under normal circumstances.
Paradoxically, the UK does not have an industrial or manufactuiring extension service. Recent studies5 estimate that an effective decision analysis extension service could triple the rate of contribution of IT to the real growth rate of the UK economy.
5 McNeill, H.W., "Extension services for productivity", SEEL, HPC, September, 2009.
Diagram adapted from bove from McNeill, H.W., "Extension services for productivity", SEEL, HPC, September, 2009. Historic analyisis available in Mansfield, E., "The Economics of Technological Change", pp.99-100, W.W.Norton & Co., 1968. |
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The role of an extension service
The Decision Analysis Initiative (DAI) is organized as an extension service. Extension is an activity of spreading useful information and knowledge about new technologies1 and techniques2 as a proactive means of raising awareness, providing opportunities to assess their worth and to provide guidance in the most appropriate way to use them by those interested in adopting a new or improved practice. The term innovation refers to the process of something being done for the first time3. In this context, extension has the role of spreading innovation through geographic space so that an increasing number of people benefit and thereby stimulating a sustained rate of economic growth4. Extension systems have existed for many years in the agricultural sectors as a system to assist farmers take decisions in a complex environment. The approach is particularly relevant to the promotion of decision analysis.
Sustaining an evolution in behaviour based on improving practice
Extension services do not normally operate on the basis of a one-way "technological-push". They have a vital role in conveying challenging user circumstances and requirements to those who are concerned with the creation of new technologies or the improvement of existing technologies. Extension services can often become intimately involved in the assessment of promising new techniques by carrying out applied research. Quite often experimental design is undertaken to take into account matters of significance to the likely users of technology. The assessment of applied research and development output is often undertaken by extension services so as to present results in a transparent form of use to the potential user; the DAI has such a role.
Showing & not talking about what is possible
In this environment, "proof of concept" is substituted by a more practical "observation of how it works in practice" based on demonstrations carried out on pioneer sites. As a result the innovation being contemplated is not a theoretical concept but rather something the potential innovator has seen in operation. As a result of well-conducted demonstrations the confidence of those contemplating the use of a new technology or technique is enhanced because the assumed risk is lower than might have been the case if no demonstration had been seen.
Transparency and objectivity
An extension service has the role of introducing an adequate level of transparency and objectivity in the assessment of new applications so that potential users are less subject to the direct influence of promotional arguments of commercial systems producers. The role of extension is to point out the full range of benefits and costs and not just the benefits associated with ownership of a new process.
Detecting similarities & differences in circumstances
The challenge facing anyone observing a demonstration is to make sure that they understand what is required to emulate what was observed in practice. Is there a need for training? What resources and equipment are required? How much does it cost? More to the point, observers always need to check to see that the circumstances under which a demonstration takes place are the same or similar to their own. If not, to what degree might the performance observed be affected by the specific circumstances of the potential adopter of the innovation? For people to be in a position to decide there is a need for parallel information inputs such as guidelines on what is needed for success, a means of communicating with those who already use the practice and an ability to analyse, in an objective fashion, the demonstration environment and the intended environment in terms of possible differences that might affect outcomes. More details on this aspect are to be found under Online demonstrations. The DAI's approach to the design and implementation of online decision analysis system demonstrations is explained under Demonstration development cycle.
1 Technology is the specific combination of resources, tools and devices used to undertake some action such as producing an industrial product, the processing of information or the production of a crop.
2 Technique is the way in which a given technology is used by a specific person or work group. Quite often people using the same technology can achieve different levels of performance as a direct result of differences in technique. The evolution in technique is a learning process whereby individuals adapt the way they work as they gain more practice (experience) in making using any given technique; technique is constantly evolving.
3 Mansfield, E., "The Economics of Technological Change", pp.99-100, W.W.Norton & Co., 1968.
4 McNeill, H.W., "Planning & Managing Actions to Stimulate Agricultural Efficiency & National Economic Growth", in "Towards a Market-based Privatization Strategy for Hungarian Agriculture", pp. 40-48, Ministry of Agriculture, Budapest, 1993.
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